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The Forces Reshaping Saudi Arabia’s Mortgage Landscape

The wider picture in this week’s Macro newsletter is certainly about three aspects that help shape the housing and the real estate mortgage sectors in the kingdom:

the government initiatives to provide affordable housing

the rising role of private credit in this lucrative market

the noticeable shift in the lifestyle preference.

Citizens can sign up for state-subsidised bank loans to buy homes newly built at the suburbs of major cities like Riyadh. Such subsidized loans can improve housing affordability, particularly for middle- and lower-income citizens, fostering social stability and increasing overall homeownership rates, which is one of the key goals of Vision 2030. More recently, the kingdom has decided to lift restrictions on land transactions and development in northern Riyadh.

 

That said, it’s important to note that the interest rates are still way higher than their level in February 2022 (1%), when they started rising until they reached a peak of around 6% in mid 2024, before they started slightly falling again until they reached around 5%. The continuing increase in borrowing costs can still pose a challenge for the citizens with limited disposable income.

 

Secondly, private credit has expanded in the kingdom from focusing initially on small and medium-sized enterprises to competing for a share in the real estate mortgage.

 

This growing role of private credit is boosted by the expected cautious approach from the traditional lenders, which has resulted in a funding gap in a ‘crowded’ market, where traditional lenders compete for nearly similar deals for hopeful buyers, who want to get into the property ladder.

 

Some private credit lenders not only provide competitive interest rates, but also focus on those who don’t typically qualify for traditional mortgages from banks.

 

But more importantly, these private credit firms provide debt financing to major borrowers such as real estate developers or corporations, because they later pool these loans together into a diversified debt portfolio. They structure this pool into bonds of varying risk levels based on the creditworthiness of the underlying loans. These bonds are then sold to institutional investors such as insurers, pension funds, or asset managers.

 

Finally, the shift in the preferences of the concept of home in the kingdom is quite reflected in how developers and planners are increasingly favoring vertical developments—such as high-rise apartments and mixed-use towers—to maximize land use efficiency and accommodate the growing urban population.

 

Middle-income buyers find apartments significantly more affordable than villas and town houses. This change in taste makes vertical living more attractive from an economic standpoint.

 

The shift in lifestyle preferences in Saudi Arabia towards vertical living is further exemplified by the growing demand for smaller, more manageable housing options such as two-bedroom apartments. These smaller units cater specifically to young professionals, small families, and middle-income citizens and residents who prioritize affordability.

اسلام زوين

Islam Zween

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Analysis from Argaam

by Sher Mehta

The residential mortgage growth reflects Saudi Arabia’s ongoing push toward its 

Homeownership target under Vision 2030, supported by initiatives like the Sakani program. Lower interest rates.At the moment

of Saudis own their own homes, up from 47 percent in 2016, when Vision 2030 was first unveiled.

 

The demographic growth (63% under age 30) has further amplified demand. Banks prioritize mortgages due to their stable returns and alignment with national priorities. The total mortgage market has surged

from SAR 297.37 billion in 2019 to SAR 883.28 billion in Q4 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 14.6%.

 

This expansion is supported by large-scale urbanization projects such as NEOM and Qiddiya and robust government programs like Sakani. The acceleration to 15.12% y/y growth in Q4 2024 (up from 13.29% in Q3) reflects strong demand, declining interest rates and expanded mortgage eligibility.

The Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company  plays a pivotal role in enhancing liquidity and stability in the Saudi mortgage market by purchasing mortgage portfolios from banks and real estate finance companies, then securitizing these assets into mortgage-backed securities or sukuk.  

This process provides immediate liquidity and capital relief to lenders, enabling them to originate more long-term, fixed-rate mortgages and support the government’s goal of enhancing  homeownership to 70% by 2030

In March, the company announced the completion of the pricing of the first USD 2 billion international Sukuk issuance, as part of its USD 5 billion international Sukuk program. The coverage of the offering exceeded six times the total issuance with more than 300 institutional investors participating. 

Mortgage Loans

  • Total mortgage loans rose 11.55% y/y to SAR 767.27 billion in 2023, from SAR 687.83 billion in 2022.

 

  • In 2019, total mortgage loans stood at SAR 297.37 billion. In Q4 2024, total mortgage loans grew by 15.12% to SAR 883.28 billion in Q4 2024, after growing by 13.29% y/y in the previous quarter (Q3 2024).

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Surge in residential/individual mortgage lending

The surge in residential mortgage lending has fuelled increased construction activity and housing supply, especially in major cities like Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam, as government initiatives and population growth drive demand for new homes.

 

Individual mortgages accounted for an average of 75.52% of total mortgage loans between 2019 and 2023 and accounted for 79.1% of total mortgage loans in 2023, while corporate mortgages averaged 24.47% of total mortgages between the same period and accounted for 20.85% of total mortgage loans in 2023.

  • Individual mortgage loans rose 10.45% y/y to SAR 607.22 billion in 2023, from SAR 549.78 billion in 2022.

 

  • In 2019, individual mortgage loans stood at SAR 198.1 billion. Over this 5-year period, individual mortgage loans surged. In Q4 2024, individual mortgage loans grew by 12.19% to SAR 681.24 billion in Q4 2024, after growing by 11.02% y/y in the previous quarter (Q3 2024).

 

  • Q4 2024 accounted for 33% of annual mortgage issuance, coinciding with interest rate cuts, likely coinciding with the declining interest rate environment. This trend emphasises the strong demand for home financing.

 

  • Mortgage lending now constitutes nearly 30% of banks’ total loan portfolios (Q4 2024).

With real estate loans now accounting for 30% of Saudi banks’ total loan portfolios, the banking sector’s financial health is increasingly tied to the stability of the real estate market, making mortgage performance a key risk factor.

 

Younger Saudis are increasingly opting for installment-based mortgage financing over traditional savings, reflecting a generational shift toward leveraging loans to achieve homeownership.

 

Apartment financing surged 46.45% y/y to SAR 2.9 billion in February 2025. Recent amendments to Saudi building regulations under Vision 2030 have introduced stricter zoning laws, updated land use policies, and new height restrictions to better manage urban growth and accommodate high-rise construction.

 

The rise of high-density and prefabricated construction has increased demand for steel, cement, and prefab components.

 

Houses still dominate residential financing at 62.6% in February 2025, down from 65.24% in 2023, though.

Corporate mortgage loans growing fast

There’s a notable rapid growth in corporate mortgage lending, which refers to a quick increase in loans provided to companies for property related to their business operations, such as hotels, retail stores, or office buildings. But it’s noteworthy that this rapid expansion can pose risks because it often leads to overexposure to sectors that are highly cyclical—that is, sectors experiencing fluctuations based on economic cycles.

 

Corporate mortgage loans-while a smaller share (20.85% in 2023, SAR 160.05 billion), have grown faster than residential/individual mortgage loans, rising 15.94% yoy in 2023 and accelerating to 26.24% y/y in Q4 2024 (SAR 202.04 billion).

 

This more rapid growth than the individual mortgage loans segment reflects the private sector’s increasing role in Vision 2030, with giga-projects (NEOM, Red Sea, ROSHN) and strong FDI inflows (target: SAR 388 billion by 2030) driving demand for commercial and industrial real estate.

 

The expansion of Shariah-compliant REITs and partnerships like the one between the American asset management firm BlackRock and the Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company (SRC), a subsidiary of the Public Investment Fund, is also boosting funding channels.

  • Corporate mortgage loans rose 15.94% y/y to SAR 160.05 billion in 2023, from SAR 138.05 billion in 2022. In 2019, corporate mortgage loans stood at SAR 99.27 billion.. In Q4 2024, corporate mortgage loans grew by 26.24% to SAR 202.04 billion in Q4 2024, after growing by 21.93% y/y in the previous quarter.

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